Israel – Iran War Analysis 3/11/26
WWIII: The Documentary is now deep in the edit, and the timing could not be more stark. Just as we were assembling the final cut, war between Israel, the United States, and Iran erupted, forcing a fundamental reassessment of the global risk landscape and the themes explored in the film. What follows is an updated strategic analysis of the conflict dynamics, escalation risks, and potential endgames in this new phase of World War III.
Israel – Iran War Analysis
The United States and Israel took the very brash decision of starting an aggressive bombing campaign on Iran, with the loosely stated objective of overthrowing the government. The first step was to bomb the Ayatollah Khomeini in his residence. Some reports state he was informed of the coming attack and chose to die in his home rather than flee to a bunker. This had the effect of making him a martyr. As much as many Iranians dislike their government, they dislike more the Israelis bombing their country. Regardless of the expatriate Iranians you see abroad cheering these actions on, popular support for their government through the course of this conflict is very high. By contrast, the average American has very little appetite for Trump’s war on Iran, especially given that he was elected on an anti‑war platform.
One thing people must understand about Persian culture is that it is a very old civilization, going back more than 2,500 years, and has themes of willingness to fight and die for a cause. Ancient Zoroastrian religion stressed Asha (Truth and the Order of things) versus the Lie, the former being worth fighting and dying for. Achaemenid inscriptions emphasized endurance, loyalty, and willingness to sacrifice for the truth and the king. With the rise of Islam and the battle of Karbala in 680, where Husayn ibn Ali and his band refused allegiance to Yazid, choosing death instead as a moral self‑sacrifice against tyranny, the theme of a martyr cult was born. Endurance in hardship, the suffering of women and children, and even the idea that defeat on the battlefield equals victory of justice in history, are critical cultural and theological themes of the Iranian people. Add to this the time‑honored Persian imperial capture of Roman emperor Valerian in 260 AD, which was recently celebrated in Tehran with the erection of a statue. Ancient Persia triumphed against the arrogance of ancient Rome; why not the US and Israel now?
This being said, when Israel and the United States haplessly carpet‑bomb Tehran, attack military sites, and destroy civil infrastructure, it has the opposite effect of unconditional surrender. Add to the mix that Iran has been preparing for this exact scenario for over 30 years and has constructed one of the most advanced domestically produced hypersonic missile arsenals in the world, albiet sheltered in hardened underground tunnel complexes. I assembled a table of all the missiles in the arsenal to provide an idea of the extensive program and it’s capabilities. Keep in mind that Israeli and US anti‑missile systems are exorbitantly expensive, there are far too few interceptors to counter the sheer number of missiles Iran possesses, and many of those Iranian missiles can bypass these defenses even when they are fully deployed. Keep in mind that Israeli and US anti‑missile systems are exorbitantly expensive, there are far too few interceptors to counter the sheer number of missiles Iran possesses, and many of those Iranian missiles can bypass these defenses even when they are fully deployed.
Iranian Missiles
(class, range and speed)
For Israel to take on Iran, a nation with missile capabilities like these, is sheer suicide. Many of these missiles have the ability to circumvent US anti‑missile defense systems and pummel Israel. The arrogance and hubris of this military adventure could, and very well will, spell the end of Israel as we know it. Even with the total support and weight of the entire US military brought down on Iran, this will very likely be a fool’s errand and will be a global military disaster to the reputation of the United States. And for what strategic goal? As my friend Douglas Macgregor said, “A war without a goal is a forever war.” Trump has changed his stance on what the objective of this war more then five times over the last week since it was started. Adding insult to injury, Marco Rubio admitted to journalists a few days ago that Israel coaxed us into the attack. These events are text-book examples of the end of empire.
To add to the bizarre nature of all this, the Israelis chose Saturday the 28th of February, which is the Shabbat Purim in the Book of Esther, where the Persians tried to massacre the Jews but it backfired with Persian hubris boomeranging resulting in their massacre. As well, Saturday February the 28th was a blood‑moon equinox, further symbolizing military victory for Israel, or so they say. But who is really practicing hubris here? Iran is 79 times larger than Israel and has 10 times the population size. Israel’s population is concentrated mainly in two cities, while Iran is spread throughout the country, making Iran’s ability to rain missiles on Israel very easy and presenting great difficulties for Israel to strike Iran.
Territory of Iran Overlayed on Western Europe
The Bottom Line
The next two weeks are critical here. As Israel continues to get pummeled by Iranian missiles, they face increasing difficulty in maintaining public support for this endeavor and an increasing likelihood of resorting to dropping a nuclear weapon on Iran. The Israelis are settlers that came to Israel one or two generations ago, many of whom hold second passports. They face an inability to wage a prolonged war against a vast nation like Iran, whose people are from there, are not going anywhere, and have deep traditions of fighting injustice, for truth, and accepting death in the process. Israelis have deep traditions of using others to fight their wars for them, which the United States is now unfortunately playing this role. These two cultures couldn’t be more different, and the outcomes appear not in Israel’s favor.
My prediction is Trump tries to withdraw from the war, falsely claim victory, and try to get out of the conflict. But Iran is mad and seeks punishment on Israel for her arrogance, to prevent her from ever attacking Iran again. When the conflict began they immediately struck US military installations in more than seven countries, mostly the Gulf states, who have been playing footsie with the US and Israel for the past 40 years and hosted extensive US military installations whose primary purpose is aggression against Iran. Their monarchies have disrespected the Iranians for decades, and the Iranians have had enough. Their striking these US military installations quickly shifted the balance of power in their favor and they are in a strong position to realign the power structure of the region, expelling US influence and containing or even destroying Israel.
Iran as well has closed the Straits of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. The Gulf states have economically collapsed, oil has spiked from $70/barrel and could reach $150/barrel soon. International economic pressure is now squarely on the US and Israel to stop it’s reckless and purposeless actions.
So what does Israel do when its back is against the wall? Does it resort to the use of nuclear weapons to stop Iran from sending missiles at her? If so, Pakistan has made promises to provide Iran with a nuke to eliminate Israel in response. These next two weeks are critical and could go in several directions.
As my interview with former Ambassador Chas Freeman, released next week, ends with the lesson: “It is better to make peace when you are strong than to make peace when you are defeated and weak.” Too often empires engage in conflicts they end up losing and would have been better suited making a favorable agreement instead of engaging in war. Israel and the United States are unfortunately learning this too‑often repeated lesson of history.
In Thucydides’ Peloponnesian Wars, Athens made this mistake with the invasion of Sicily. Alcibiades pushed for war, while Nicias said that while Athens is still strong and feared, it is safe; but if it gambles on a distant expedition and suffers a major defeat, its enemies will unite against it and the city itself will be in mortal danger.
Athens’ invasion of Sicily failed and never recovered from the catastrophe that resulted. How the tides of history repeat themselves.
If you enjoyed this analysis, consider donating to the film and share its interviews at
